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| #1061585 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 14.Sep.2021) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours, with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously. Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land, with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so. Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday as it loses any significant steering. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts, most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern Louisiana coast by afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 29.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
