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| #10620 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 27.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004 METEOSAT-8 AND GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW LISA REMAINS AS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO PULSATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KTS BASED ON TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. LISA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IT WILL KEEP LISA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN CONTINUING MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE STEERS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TENDS TOWARD CONU AND GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLOWS THE MOTION AT THE LONGER TIME PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AS STRONG-TO-MODERATE SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS... THE SHEAR LOWERS AND ALLOWS LISA TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY FOR 48 HOURS AND THEN STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE IS FORECAST IN THE LATER TIME PERIOD. IF LISA CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF IN THE PRESENCE OF THE CURRENT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LISA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SST REGIME. FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 20.8N 46.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 21.8N 47.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 23.2N 47.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 24.6N 48.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 26.0N 48.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 29.0N 49.8W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 31.0N 50.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 33.0N 51.0W 65 KT |
