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| #1062656 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 21.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the larger mean circulation. A pair of recent scatterometer passes indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt on this advisory. The storm`s environment is no bed of roses during the next several days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast. Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest this morning at about 12 kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a mid-latitude trough is anticipated to steer Rose faster to the northeast or east-northeast by the weekend, which should cause the weak tropical cyclone to open up into a trough towards the end of the forecast. While there are some speed differences among the models, the latest guidance suite is similar to the last forecast, so no significant changes were made to the NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 21.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 22.8N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 26.9N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 29.4N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 31.5N 34.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
