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| #1062803 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 22.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds with no significant convection, with an earlier burst dissipating during the last few hours. Recently received scatterometer data show 25-30 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The cyclone remains in an environment of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next 2-3 days, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during this time. However, confidence in the timing of when the system will stop producing organized convection is still low. The new intensity forecast calls for Rose to degenerate into a remnant low between 60-72 h, but it is possible this could happen earlier. The initial motion is now 305/8 kt. The depression is expected to turn northward in 24-36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. By 48-60 h, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic. Based on the initial position and motion, the first 36 h of the forecast track are shifted a little to the west of the previous track. After that time, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 23.6N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 24.6N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 26.1N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 28.8N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 29.4N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 29.9N 34.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 31.5N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
