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| #1062848 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 22.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB. Based mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt. Rose remain in an area of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. The large-scale model guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an upper-level trough. For now, the intensity forecast will not call for re-generation at that time. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants of Odette. Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus aids after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 24.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
