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| #106288 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 26.Aug.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RECENTLY DEVELOPED BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 45 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...REMAIN AT 25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM BASED OFF OF THE GFS FIELDS SHOWS DISSIPATION AS A SHALLOW WARM CORE SYSTEM...WHILE THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES ABSORPTION WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS. SO...THERE STILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT...OR NON-CONVECTIVE...LOW BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DEBBY HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. IT APPEARS THAT THE RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCING THIS MOTION AND ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.0N 47.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 28.6N 48.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/1800Z 31.2N 48.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/0600Z 34.2N 46.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT |
