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#1062957 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 23.Sep.2021)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 37.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN