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| #1063158 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 24.Sep.2021) TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Teresa's cloud pattern is not well organized, even for a subtropical cyclone. The main convective band is rather ragged in appearance, and situated 100 n mi or more to the east and northeast of the exposed low-level center. The current intensity estimate, 40 kt, is in general agreement with the latest subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, but given the disheveled appearance of the system, this may be generous. Teresa has recently been moving more westward than northward, on the northern side of a mid-level cyclonic circulation, and the current motion estimate is an uncertain 300/9 kt. During the next day or so, the cyclone is likely to turn northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough that will be moving over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one, but along the same general trajectory. The HCCA model consensus is somewhat faster than the NHC prediction. The cyclone has been situated under an upper-level low which has kept the vertical shear fairly low thus far. However, as this low moves away from the area, Teresa will begin to experience increasing west-southwesterly shear, and no strengthening is expected. In 48 hours or so, based on the global models, the storm is forecast to become absorbed by the aforementioned trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 34.3N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
