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| #1063189 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 25.Sep.2021) TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa is poorly organized and it likely won't be a subtropical cyclone for much longer. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms that is located more than 250 n mi northeast of the center. This patch of convection has been detaching from the low-level circulation and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level low to the east of Teresa. ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C caught the circulation several hours ago, and showed winds of 25-30 kt near it. However, that instrument did not sample the area of convection well northeast of the center, where the winds could be a little stronger. Given the degraded structure of the system, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt. Now that the upper-level low has pulled away from the subtropical storm, west-southwesterly shear is increasing across the circulation and that should prevent convective organization and any opportunity for strengthening. Due to the strong shear and dry air entrainment, Teresa is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate on Sunday. Teresa is moving slowly west-northwestward at 5 kt. A turn to the north is expected later today, followed by a northeast motion as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 34.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 35.4N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
