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| #106343 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 26.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE TIME OVER CUBA. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.8N 72.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W 100 KT |
