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| #1063972 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 30.Sep.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Victor has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with the convective banding becoming better defined near the center in the northeastern semicircle. Recent ASCAT data showed winds of 45-47 kt about 70 n mi north of the center, and based on the likelihood of some undersampling the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Although the scatterometer showed a stronger storm, the data suggested the system has not yet formed a well-defined inner core. The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Victor is expected to continue west-northwestward for another 24 h or so on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, with the HWRF remaining a significant outlier to the east. Thus, the new forecast track is a little to the west of the various consensus aids that include the HWRF. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast. Victor should remain in a favorable environment for the next 24 h or so, and the intensity forecast shows more strengthening during that time, After that, the upper-level low should cause moderate to strong southwesterly shear over the storm, and by the end of the forecast period it will be moving into a drier air mass. This combination should cause Victor to steadily weaken after 24 h. The new NHC forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast, and it now calls for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 120 h. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance through 48-60 h, and thereafter is close to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 10.6N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.3N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 17.7N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.2N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 25.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 28.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
