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| #1064167 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 02.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor`s satellite appearance has continued to degrade this morning with the closest convection now located more than 150 nmi northeast of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Thus, Victor no longer technically meets the convective criterion of a tropical cyclone. However, tropical cyclone status is being maintained for this advisory out of continuity with the previous advisory and just in case a burst of deep convection redevelops later today near the still-well-defined low-level circulation center. Victor`s intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on a subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of CI3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the typical decay rate and spin down of a non-convective vortex over open water. The motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 72-96 hours or until dissipation occurs. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt and entrainment of dry mid-level air have taken their toll on Victor. These unfavorable environmental parameters are expected to worsen, resulting in continued weakening throughout the forecast period. Therefore, Victor is forecast to become a tropical depression by Sunday, degenerate into a remnant low by Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. However, the current weakening trend will be hastened if organized convection does not return within the next 12 hours. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and is also lower than most of the intensity guidance due to Victor`s aforementioned severely degraded convective pattern. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
