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| #1064204 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 02.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Strong southwesterly shear and entrainment of dry air have taken their toll on Victor. The deep convection and the remnant mid-level core has been stripped away from the cyclone`s low-level circulation, and is now more than 250 n mi northeast of Victor`s center. The most recent UW-CIMMS shear analysis indicates the shear magnitude is about 30 kt over the center of the cyclone, and nearly 50 kt just to its north. The initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. However, this value could be generous. Victor`s vector is 305/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates, as the cyclone is steered in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is just slightly to the left of the previous one, and lies on the western side of the guidance envelope to accommodate the shallow nature of the circulation. The strong shear is not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future and very dry, African dust-laden air lies in the path of Victor. Therefore, it is unlikely that organized deep convection will redevelop near the center of the cyclone. Because of this, Victor is now expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low is forecast by the global models to open into a trough in 60 h. Due to the quick weakening that has been observed, the latest NHC intensity forecast was lowered through the first 12 h, and then remains the same as the previous forecast beyond that time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.1N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.1N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 15.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 18.0N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 44.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 21.6N 46.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
