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| #1064245 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 02.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various multimodel track consensus solutions. Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for the timing of the system becoming a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
