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#106427 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 27.Aug.2006) TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 73.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 73.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 74.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 78.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.1N 80.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 28.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z |