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| #1064319 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Victor remains a sheared tropical cyclone with intense deep convection having developed closer to the center in the northeastern quadrant since the previous advisory. Satellite intensity estimates remain at T2.0/30 kt, so the advisory intensity remains at 30 kt. It is possible that Victor could have regained tropical storm status based on the robust convective shear pattern. For now, however, Victor will remain a depression until new ASCAT surface wind data arrive later this morning. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur this morning due to the aforementioned better defined shear pattern. By tonight, however, weakening is anticipated as Victor encounters southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt and moves into a drier air mass, which will act to decrease both the depth and amount of inner-core deep convection. Victor is expected to gradually spin down tonight and Monday, with the circulation opening up into a trough on Tuesday. Victor continues to move northwestward, or 315/14 kt. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to continue as Victor remains embedded within the southeasterly flow around a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
