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| #106434 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 27.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ERNESTO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING BUT THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST AIRCRAFT-EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD YUCATAN...THE SHEAR OVER ERNESTO IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THUS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD BE OVER CUBA FROM HOUR 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL RATHER CLOSELY. HOWEVER...AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY AT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE PROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/8. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TAKE ERNESTO OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF CUBA. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN 3-5 DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 0600 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT THE 0600 UTC NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 17.6N 73.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 18.6N 74.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 76.5W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 78.3W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1200Z 23.1N 80.3W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 28.0N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 60 KT |
