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| #1064427 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 In its battle against dry air and shear, Victor is far from its namesake. The depression continues to produce only minimal deep convection to the north. Furthermore, an ASCAT overpass near 2219 UTC casts doubt on whether Victor still has a closed and well-defined circulation, showing generally light winds south of the suspect center. However, no visible imagery is currently available to confirm the state of Victor`s surface center, so advisories will continue for now. ASCAT data showed winds a little above 25 kt to the northeast of Victor`s center, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Victor is moving northwestward at a slightly faster speed (305/13 kt). Based on the ASCAT data and recent ProxyVis imagery, the center of Victor was relocated about 40 n mi south of previous estimates, which has resulted in a southern shift in the forecast track. That said, Victor is not expected to persist for much longer. The hostile surrounding environment will likely cause Victor to become a remnant low or dissipate on Monday. Victor, or its remnants, should move generally northwestward or west-northwestward until dissipation occurs within a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.8N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
