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| #106555 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 28.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE EAST THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. |
