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| #1068033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 31.Oct.2021) TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Dry air continues to wrap into the circulation of Wanda, and consequently, the system is only producing small fragmented bands of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds of about 45 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in line with the satellite classification from TAFB. After moving east-southeastward for much of the day, Wanda has abruptly turned southwestward with the latest initial motion estimated to be 215/7 kt. This erratic motion is related to the upper-level low that Wanda is co-located with. The storm is likely to turn back toward the east-southeast or east on Monday and then track to the northeast on Tuesday as the storm moves in the flow between the associated trough and a building ridge to its east. By Thursday and Friday, however, the models show another ridge building to the north and west of Wanda, and that should slow its northward progress and will likely cause the storm to turn eastward or southeastward again by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, trending toward the latest models. Wanda is likely to remain fairly steady in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Even though the storm`s intensity is not expected to change much, it will likely transition to a tropical cyclone during the next day or so as it continues to separate from the nearby fronts and upper low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 35.6N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 35.1N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 35.1N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 02/1200Z 36.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 37.4N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 39.2N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 43.1N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
