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| #1068329 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021 Wanda has changed little in organization since yesterday evening. Bands of moderately deep convection continue around the storm center, but upper-level outflow is not as well-defined as in a typical tropical cyclone. The advisory intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. This is also in general agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. The cyclone remains fairly small, with most of the stronger winds occurring over its eastern semicircle. The storm continues moving a little east of north, or near 015/7 kt. Wanda should move on the eastern side of a mid-latitude trough for the next day or so. After that time, the trough is likely to weaken and this should result in the system slowing down and turning eastward. In 2 to 3 days, a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Wanda which should cause the cyclone to move southeastward. In 4 to 5 days, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of another mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one except a little more to the northeast in 36-60 hours. This follows the latest simple and corrected model consensus solutions, and is also close to the average of the latest ECMWF and GFS model tracks. The system has maintained its intensity in spite of being over sea surface temperatures of only about 23 deg C. Wanda will pass over even cooler waters while it moves farther northward during the next 24 hours or so, which may make it difficult for the system to produce much deep convection. However, the storm has been resilient to seemingly hostile conditions so far, and the official forecast calls for Wanda to maintain its intensity for much of the forecast period. This is similar to the latest intensity model consensus guidance. By 96 hours, however, dry air and shear are likely to result in Wanda losing organized convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 5 days, if not sooner, Wanda is likely to merge with a frontal zone, and return to its former extratropical status. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 38.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 39.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 41.0N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 41.9N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 41.6N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 40.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 38.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 39.7N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/0600Z 46.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
