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| #1068493 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 04.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021 Wanda continues to maintain bands of moderately deep convection near the center, and the cyclone continues to display anticyclonic outflow. However, cold air clouds are wrapping around the southern side of the circulation, and in the big picture Wanda appears to be embedded in a larger-scale baroclinic low. A recent ASCAT-A overpass suggests that the maximum winds are now near 40 kt, which is between the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is northward or 000/5 kt. During the next couple of days, a narrow mid-latitude ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone, which should cause Wanda to turn southeastward and southward by the 48 h point. By 60-72 h, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should finally cause the system to begin to accelerate northeastward, with this motion persisting through the end of the forecast period. The new guidance shows a little more southward motion by 48 h than the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is adjusted a little southward near that time. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 h as Wanda remains over sea surface temperatures of near 20C. By 48 h, the southward motion brings the center over slightly warmer water, and some modest strengthening is possible by that time. Many of the guidance models show more strengthening and a higher intensity than the official forecast between 48-72 h, and some adjustment may be needed to that part of the forecast in later advisories if this trend persists. By 96 h, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system and become extratropical over the northeastern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 41.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 42.1N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 38.1N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 38.7N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 48.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 51.5N 13.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
