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| #1068659 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 05.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 Wanda`s convective cloud pattern appears a little more organized within its eastern semicircle this evening per GOES-East visible and infrared imagery. However, cloud tops have not cooled. Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged and with the lack of any new ASCAT data, the maximum sustained winds remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Wanda is moving southward between a shortwave ridge to its northwest and a deep layer low to its south. The initial motion is considered 180/8 kt; the shorter term motion is quicker, closer to 15 kt, but unlikely to maintain itself as it leaves a zone of confluent flow. The southward motion is expected to continue into Saturday. Starting late Saturday, a developing mid-latitude cyclone south of Atlantic Canada will break down the ridge and the deep layer low will migrate farther away. The cyclone near Canada is expected to grow in size and intensity which will act to accelerate Wanda and eventually absorb the storm. The latest track guidance shows a sharper turn and has trended west during its period of acceleration, which has led to a modest adjustment to the previous forecast. The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer water during the next 24 hours, and during this time Wanda should be in an area of light to moderate shear caused by the nearby deep layer low. This environment should allow Wanda to maintain its strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 hours, the approaching mid-latitude system will bring some upper level diffluence which could offset the affects of increasing vertical wind shear. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 hours, and by 96 hours system is forecast to be absorbed by the mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 39.1N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 38.1N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 39.4N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 43.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 49.1N 23.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 57.6N 12.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Taylor |
