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| #1068764 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 06.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021 The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory, with a band of convection near the center in the northern semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the center. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-47 kt. Given the spread and the unchanged structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The initial motion is 180/5 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward during the next 12 h. After that, Wanda is expected to accelerate toward the northeast. The current guidance is in good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little slower than the previous guidance. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast. Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h. Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and become an extratropical low. The global models subsequently forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time. Otherwise, there are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 37.0N 38.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 40.5N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 45.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 50.6N 18.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
