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| #106878 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 AM 29.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CANAGUA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES ...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WATER LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...22.2 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
