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#107011 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:47 PM 29.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND/OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |