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| #107065 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 29.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DURING THE DAY...ERNESTO BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED-LOOKING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING ON THE IMAGERY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED...AND THE FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ROUGHLY COMMENSURATE WITH THE TYPICAL SEMI-DIURNAL PRESSURE CHANGE. IN OTHER WORDS...ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING. IT IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING WHY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED TODAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR. THERE IS STILL A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO GAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...BUT THAT WINDOW WILL SOON CLOSE. AFTER ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA COAST...THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...320/11...HAS CONTINUED. HOWEVER...THE HEADING IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS ERNESTO ROUNDS THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IN A DAY OR SO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD MOVE ERNESTO BACK INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 32.5N 79.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1800Z 43.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
