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| #107327 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 30.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT ERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 26.4N 80.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
