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#107630 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 31.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...30.0 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB |