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| #107632 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 31.Aug.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FOUND MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF 51 KT WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 43 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 45 KT. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 18 HOURS OVER WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AND PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST...BUT REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY. AFTER LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/13. THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS ERNESTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41010. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 30.0N 80.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 32.1N 79.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 34.6N 78.6W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.2W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/0600Z 39.3N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0600Z 44.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB |
