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| #107746 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 31.Aug.2006) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
