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| #108790 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 AM 05.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006 WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS. GIVEN THIS AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.7N 45.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.9N 50.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 53.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA |
