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| #10895 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 29.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. LISA CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LISA TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER. LISA IS MOVING 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD THEN REACH THE WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...BY 96 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 30.9N 45.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 32.5N 46.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 47.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 36.0N 47.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 42.0N 40.0W 45 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED 96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
