Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #109253 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 07.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN DIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.8N 53.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W 90 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
