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| #10927 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 30.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2004 ALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE REMAINS...DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION IS DIMINISHING...AS LISA MOVES OVER 26C...79F WATERS. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...BUT I WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS. THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE WATERS WILL COOL ONLY SLOWLY...SO THERE WOULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR LISA TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHOULD THERE BE A RENEWED CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CORE. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BY WHICH TIME LISA SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION OF JEANNE. GIVEN THE RECENT MARKED DECLINE IN CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A FASTER DECAY THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTH...LISA IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING REMNANTS OF JEANNE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR TERMINATING THE TRACK A LITTLE SOONER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 32.5N 47.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 47.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 35.6N 47.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 37.7N 46.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO REMNANTS OF JEANNE |
