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| #1093986 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 03.Jun.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 85.8W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card Sound Bridge * East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge * Lake Okeechobee * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm tonight, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding. Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba through tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba this afternoon and tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...1-2 ft Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
