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| #1097078 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 PM 27.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 800 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.8N 51.6W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of Venezuela, and the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.8 North, longitude 51.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches. Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
