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| #1097389 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 29.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Last-light visible satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is gradually developing a closed circulation However, surface observations from the ABC islands, as well as imagery from the Curacao radar, indicate that the center is poorly defined. In addition, the associated convection has become less organized during the past several hours. Based on this, the system will not be upgraded to a tropical storm at this time. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring over the open Caribbean to the north of the ABC Islands. The initial motion is now 275/18 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the system should steer it generally westward for the next 2-3 days with some decrease in forward speed, with a more west-northwestward motion after the system crosses Central America into the Pacific. The track guidance has nudged a little farther south through the first 60 h or so, so the new forecast track is also nudged a little southward and lies close to the various consensus models. Warm sea surface temperatures, a moist air mass, and light shear should allow the system to develop as it moves away from land later tonight and on Thursday. The current forecast continues to call for the system to become a tropical storm and then be just below hurricane strength as it nears the coast of Nicaragua in about 48 h. Significant weakening should occur over Central America, followed by re-intensification over the eastern Pacific. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance and is similar to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight and early Thursday. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 12.0N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/1200Z 12.1N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/0000Z 12.0N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 11.7N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 11.4N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR NICARAGUA COAST 60H 02/1200Z 11.3N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 72H 03/0000Z 11.5N 88.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 14.0N 100.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
