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| #1097524 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 30.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The disturbance has become somewhat better organized since the last advisory, Last-light visible imagery showed a swirl of low-clouds marking a vorticity center, and the convection has been increasing near and northwest of the swirl. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a pressure of 1005 mb when it passed through the swirl. However, the plane was unable to close off a well-defined circulation, and the aircraft wind data suggests the possibility that the swirl is to the north of a broader circulation. Thus, the system is still not a tropical cyclone. The aircraft data indicates that the initial intensity remains near 35 kt. The initial motion is 270/18. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a little south of west for the next 12 to 24 h. Then from 24-72 h, a more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally westward track across Central America into the eastern Pacific. After that time, the system should move west-northwestward on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, parallel to and south of the coast of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has no significant changes from the previous forecast and lies close to the various consensus models. While the warm-water, light-shear environment of the southwestern Caribbean is favorable for development, so far little development has occurred and the system is running out of time before it reaches Central America. The intensity forecast calls for an intensity of 50 kt by 24 h, and it is still possible that the system could be near hurricane strength before it reached Central America in about 30 hours. Weakening should occur while the system crosses Central America, followed by re-intensification over the Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.8N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/1200Z 11.5N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 02/0000Z 11.3N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 11.4N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z 11.6N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 60H 03/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.0N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 99.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 16.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
