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| #109757 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 09.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FLORENCE IS SEVERELY ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED EVEN THOUGH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING PHASE THIS MORNING...A SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY AND THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPING EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED. SOME MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER...AND THIS HINDERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WHEN FLORENCE SHOULD BE TURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 25.6N 64.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 26.8N 65.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 28.7N 65.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 30.8N 65.5W 85 KT...APPROACHING BERMUDA 48HR VT 11/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 90 KT...NORTH OF BERMUDA 72HR VT 12/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1800Z 49.0N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
