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| #10998 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 01.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA HAS A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER... SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/10...AND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO LISA MAY BE MOVING EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE STORM IS RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF JEANNE...AND AN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE. LISA IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS NOW OVER 25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATER GETS COLDER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AFTER 12 HR...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER 24 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH LISA UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR AND ABSORPTION BY THE LARGER LOW BEFORE 72 HR. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT LISA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT CHANGE THE EXPECTED OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 35.6N 47.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 37.6N 46.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 40.5N 42.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 43.4N 37.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0600Z 46.0N 28.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
