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| #11022 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 01.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004 LISA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LISA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE RING OF CONVECTION IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS BUT AT ANY TIME WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANCE FORCE. LISA IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. LISA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 15 KNOTS. LISA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LASTEST HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 36.9N 46.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 39.0N 44.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 42.0N 39.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 44.0N 33.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z 46.5N 24.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL |
