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| #110310 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 11.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED BUT IT IS LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 50 KNOTS EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY. THE VALIDITY OF THESE VECTORS WILL LIKELY BE QUESTIONED. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR SO. GORDON MOST LIKELY WILL SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER. IT IS ALREADY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AND SOON THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE FLORENCE. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS GORDON SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 22.1N 57.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 58.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 24.5N 59.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 26.0N 60.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 27.6N 60.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 30.0N 59.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 57.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE |
