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| #1103648 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 20.Aug.2022) TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images indicate that the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized. Flight-level wind data confirms that the system is still a surface trough that is not far offshore of the Gulf coast of Mexico. It should be noted that the initial position in the advisory is based on extrapolation of the mid-level center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the aircraft data and Dvorak estimates. The chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Regardless of the system's status, the overall impacts are expected to be the same. Winds to tropical storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later today and continue into Sunday. After the system moves inland, quick weakening is expected and the disturbance is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night over southern Texas. The overall envelope of the shower and thunderstorm activity is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in 24 to 36 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this afternoon and evening, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, today. This rainfall may produce flash flooding. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Sunday morning, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 23.6N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/1200Z 27.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto |
