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| #1105248 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 01.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over the North Atlantic west of the Azores has developed a well-defined circulation and convective banding in the eastern semicircle. Based on this structure, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Five with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Despite the high latitude, the cyclone is in an area of light steering currents on the southeast and south side of an anomalously strong mid-level anticyclone. This should result in a slow motion for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward drift followed by a westward drift. After three days, the anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system. The large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more northward motion. The track forecast is close to all of the guidance for the first three days, and then calls for a northeastward motion between the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the other consensus models at days 4 and 5. The sea surface temperatures in the area are warmer than normal - near 27C. This warm water, combined with a forecast environment of light- to moderate westerly shear for the next three days or so, should allow steady strengthening. The intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in about two days, and reach a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 4 days. It should be noted that this forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and there are models forecasting more intensification. After four days, motion over cooler water and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 38.1N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 38.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 38.2N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 41.5N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
