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| #110527 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 PM 12.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY... THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE OBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC. THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER... THESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE UK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 24.4N 57.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
