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| #1105358 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 01.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 The overall organization of the tropical cyclone has continued to increase since the previous advisory. The primary convective band now wraps nearly completely around the center, and there have been occasional hints of a ragged eye. Earlier microwave imagery also revealed the presence of a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature. Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0 (45 kt) and T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the continued improvement in structure, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt, the higher end of those estimates. Despite the high latitude of the tropical cyclone, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional strengthening over the next 2-3 days. As mentioned previously, the cyclone is located over anomalously warm waters, and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain generally low through 72 hours. As a result, continued steady strengthening is expected, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. By days 4 and 5, cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear are likely to cause some weakening. The NHC wind speed forecast is in good agreement with the latest intensity consensus aids, and shows the same peak intensity as the previous official forecast. Danielle continues its slow eastward motion of around 090 degrees at 2 kt. The cyclone is situated within an area of light steering flow under an omega block, which is expected to cause Danielle to meander during the next few days. The strong mid-level ridge to the north is forecast to weaken and shift eastward early next week. By days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to lift Danielle northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed. Little change was required to the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter part has been adjusted eastward to be in better alignment with the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, and the latest multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 38.0N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 37.9N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 37.9N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 37.9N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 38.2N 44.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 40.8N 42.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.6W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
