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| #1105457 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 02.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 The satellite presentation of Danielle has degraded some this afternoon. Drier mid-level air appears to have wrapped into the circulation, and the cyclone now has more of a banded structure around the western and southern portions of the system. Recently, infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled within a small ring of inner core convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt for this advisory. Danielle is nearly stationary, as it remains under weak steering currents with a blocking high pressure ridge positioned over the North Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to meander or drift slowly westward over the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and retreats westward, Danielle should begin moving northeastward more-typical mid-latitude flow by Monday. Then, the cyclone is forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward during the middle of next week. The track guidance has shifted considerably to the left this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, toward the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). The upwelling of cooler water underneath slow-moving Danielle is likely to prevent much strengthening in the near term. However, the deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak for the next couple of days. So, there is still potential for a bit of strengthening if the cyclone is able to drift farther west of its current position. By 72 h, Danielle is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and move into a more highly-sheared environment, which is expected to induce a weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one and lies near or just below the various model consensus aids. Around day 5, Danielle is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough and begin the process of extratropical transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 37.9N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 38.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 38.3N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 39.6N 43.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 41.5N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 43.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
