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| #1105493 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 02.Sep.2022) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 60.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 60.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 65.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 67.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 60.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG |
