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| #1105499 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 02.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 Danielle`s satellite presentation has degraded further this evening, highlighted by a loss of the eye. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased from TAFB and SAB since earlier today, but their respective Current Intensity numbers remain 4.0 and 4.5. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 65 kt. Danielle has been stationary for the past 6-12 hours while it remains in a weak steering environment to the south of a blocking high over the North Atlantic. This pattern is expected to hold firm for the next few days, with the hurricane forecast to meander through about day 3. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off the coast of Atlantic Canada and the northeastern U.S. should finally shove Danielle on an accelerating path toward the northeast on days 4 and 5. During the acceleration phase, the updated NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast and lies close to the HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids. Danielle`s convective and organizational struggles during the past few hours could be due to upwelling of cooler waters. While vertical shear is expected to be generally low 3 days or so, the hurricane`s slow motion is likely to continue to upwell cooler waters, and therefore only slight strengthening is anticipated during that time. Danielle is expected to move over colder waters after day 3, which should induce some weakening toward the end of the forecast period. Global models also suggest that the cyclone could be undergoing extratropical transition by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 37.9N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 38.0N 43.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 37.9N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 38.1N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 38.7N 44.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 39.4N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 40.2N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 42.1N 41.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
